曾淵滄專欄 2011 04 14[轉載]

[size=3][color=#0000ff][b]IMF藥方飲鴆止渴[/b][/color][/size]
[size=3][color=#0000ff][/color][/size]
國際貨幣基金組織（ IMF）日前發表報告，警告中國及香港的銀行信貸過度膨脹，流動性太大，資產泡沫嚴重，最終可能爆破。要如何解決？ IMF提出兩個建議：一是加息以壓抑過熱的經濟；二是讓人民幣加快升值。
今日，中港有沒有資產泡沫？答案肯定是有，但產生泡沫的主因是美國猛印鈔票，這些鈔票流入中港而造成泡沫。 IMF是專為美國利益當打手的機構，所開的第一條藥方，中國政府正在做；香港因港元與美元掛鈎，不可能加息。
第二條藥方肯定是毒藥。 20多年前日本，就是在日圓急升的情況之下導致泡沫脹得更大， 1985年 1美元能兌 240日圓，之後就一路升上去，日圓一路升，日本股市、樓市更升上太空，最後超級泡沫爆破，至今仍未復元。如果人民幣急速升值，更多的美元、日圓會流入中國內地，把這個泡沫吹得更大。

收舊樓利潤厚
日前，惠理集團（ 806）創辦人之一葉維義通過配售，大手買入 900萬股金朝陽集團（ 878）。新聞一出，金朝陽股價一連兩天大幅上升，這次配售行動，令小股民對金朝陽另眼相看。
金朝陽是一家中型地產公司，市值 33億元，是專收舊樓起家的。不過，多數人對另一家專收舊樓的田生集團（ 183）可能更熟悉，因為田生較高調，收了舊樓後會在樓宇外牆掛上一張大布條標明已成功收購……
昨日，金朝陽股價升 7%，帶動田生也急升 16%，大家才留意到專收舊樓的利潤原來很不錯。不過，收舊樓不是一門容易做的生意，香港好像沒有多少家這類公司。
金朝陽除了收舊樓外，也當發展商，銅鑼灣羅素街的金朝陽中心是其代表作，因此金朝陽也是收租股，同樣得益於自由行政策。

來源 :HK Portal

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